报告题目：Simulation Methods for the Assessment of Reliability of Structural and Mechanical Systems
报 告 人：Prof. Carlos Guedes Soares
邀 请 人：蔡志强
联 系 人：蔡志强
报告简介：The structural reliability methods are presently in a mature state of development and have been used in different fields in the implementation of reliability- and risk-based methodologies for design, maintenance and inspection planning of structural and mechanical systems. The first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) have been widely used and accepted for practical applications due to their efficiency, but they have limitations with respect to accuracy and general applicability to complex system reliability problems. The Monte Carlo based simulation methods (MCS) are nowadays a viable alternative to the FORM/SORM methods due to the presently available computational resources and efficient simulation strategies, making feasible their use in a practical engineering context. Presently, they are recognized as the most versatile and robust methods for reliability analysis, which can provide arbitrarily accurate failure probability predictions irrespective of the complexity of the limit states of the system. They overcome the limitations of accuracy and general applicability of the FORM/SORM methods and can provide an error estimate for the failure probability predictions. An overview of different MCS methods for structural reliability analysis will be given in this lecture, with focus on classical variance reduction techniques such as the importance sampling and directional simulation and more advanced methods based on asymptotic techniques and subset simulation. In particular the use of surrogate models for time-consuming implicit limit states and large structural systems will be discussed.
报告人简介：Prof. Carlos Guedes Soares received the M.S. and Ocean Engineer degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA in 1976, the Ph.D. degree from the Norwegian Institute of Technology, in Trondheim, in 1984, and the Doctor of Science degree from the Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal, in 1991. He is a Distinguished Professor at the Engineering Faculty (Instituto Superior Tecnico) of the University of Lisbon and the Head of the Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), which is a research center of the University of Lisbon that is recognized and funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. He has supervised 45 concluded Phd thesis and 36 Pos-doc Researchers. He has coauthored more than 550 journal papers (h index WoS=44; SCOPUS=52; Google Scholar=63) and has been involved in more than 70 international research projects and 30 national projects. He has received Doctor Honoris Causa degrees from the Technical University of Varna in 2003 and the University “Dunarea de Jos” Galati, in 2004. He has received Awards from the University of Lisbon, the Brazilian Association of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers and the Confederation of European Maritime Technology Societies for the excellence of his work. He was founding member and has been General Secretary and Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA), was Chairman of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean (IMAM) (Vice-Chairman again since 2015) and was Chairman of the International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC). He is Editor in Chief of Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Elsevier), Editor for Ocean Energy and Offshore Wind of the Renewable Energy Journal (Elsevier); Co-Editor-in-Chief Journal of Marine Science and Application (Springer) and member of the Editorial Board of about 15 Journals.